Avocado Industry Faces Major Generational Ownership Shift
New Zealand's avocado industry is bracing for a significant generational transition, with new research from Rabobank revealing that more than half of all New Zealand farmers and orchard owners — around 17,320 people — will reach the age of 65 within the next decade. Given current land values, this represents over $150 billion in assets that will soon require effective succession planning. NZ Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert said the demographic shift brings both challenges and opportunities, with existing growers already navigating decisions around family succession, selling up, scaling back, or partnering with larger entities.
Where family succession is possible, younger generations often bring fresh perspectives on technology, sustainability and diversified revenue. However, where succession is not feasible, consolidation is becoming more likely, with larger corporate-style operations or alternative land uses increasingly replacing family-owned orchards. The Rabobank white paper highlights emerging models — including hybrid ownership, corporate structures, and Māori incorporations — as viable ways for families to maintain connections to the land while sharing risk and opportunity.
The data paints a sobering picture: only one in three farmers has a formal succession plan, around 17 percent have had informal discussions without documenting anything, and half have neither discussed nor begun planning. Meanwhile, nearly 40 percent of farmers say none of their children are seriously interested in farming, with younger generations often deterred by long-term debt and exposure to volatility. Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Todd Charteris noted that succession is a long-term process rather than a single event, and that many farmers wish they had started planning earlier.
Siebert emphasised that strong relationships across the industry would be key to keeping the avocado sector resilient and connected to its roots. He stressed that the future of the sector would be defined not just by who owns the orchards, but by how growers choose to run their businesses and care for the land — and that the industry must proactively support growers through the transition rather than simply react to change.
Originally published in Katikati News (Sun Media).